Every regime call, verified against actual BTC price movement. Updated hourly.
Vigil detected danger at $82,044 and maintained CAUTIOUS for 735 consecutive hours. Orange line = risk score (higher = more dangerous). Blue line = BTC price.
How to read this: Each row is one hourly regime call. "BTC 24h Later" shows what BTC did in the 24 hours after the call. When Vigil says CAUTIOUS/STAY OUT and BTC drops over 24h — that's a correct call (green). "pending" means 24 hours haven't elapsed yet.
| Timestamp | Verdict | BTC Price | Prob Down | BTC 24h Later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 21:07 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,886 | 66.4% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 20:33 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,886 | 66.4% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 19:59 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,734 | 75.0% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 18:49 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,734 | 75.0% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 17:32 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,597 | 68.4% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 16:31 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,154 | 68.4% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 15:30 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,734 | 75.0% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 14:29 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,734 | 75.0% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 13:11 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $60,982 | 65.5% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 12:10 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,343 | 66.0% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 11:09 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,288 | 65.4% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 10:09 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,233 | 66.1% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 09:09 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,616 | 66.4% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 08:08 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,429 | 65.9% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 07:08 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,249 | 66.5% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 06:07 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,249 | 66.5% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 05:08 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,515 | 66.5% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 04:07 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,265 | 66.2% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 03:06 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,679 | 67.9% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 02:05 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,891 | 68.6% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 01:04 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,692 | 65.5% | pending |
| 2026-06-10 00:04 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,683 | 66.2% | pending |
| 2026-06-09 23:00 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,729 | 66.1% | pending |
| 2026-06-09 22:00 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,118 | 66.1% | pending |
| 2026-06-09 20:59 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,055 | 66.0% | -0.27% |
| 2026-06-09 19:58 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,741 | 65.8% | +0.23% |
| 2026-06-09 18:57 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,637 | 65.7% | +3.40% |
| 2026-06-09 17:55 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,347 | 68.4% | +3.89% |
| 2026-06-09 16:54 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,093 | 75.0% | +2.46% |
| 2026-06-09 15:53 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,446 | 66.3% | +1.15% |
| 2026-06-09 14:51 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,222 | 65.0% | +2.43% |
| 2026-06-09 13:50 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,681 | 68.5% | +1.68% |
| 2026-06-09 12:49 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,769 | 66.2% | -2.85% |
| 2026-06-09 11:49 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,691 | 66.1% | -2.15% |
| 2026-06-09 10:48 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,821 | 68.7% | -2.44% |
| 2026-06-09 09:48 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,163 | 66.1% | -3.06% |
| 2026-06-09 08:46 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,270 | 66.0% | -2.61% |
| 2026-06-09 07:45 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,318 | 64.9% | -2.98% |
| 2026-06-09 06:45 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,206 | 65.1% | -3.10% |
| 2026-06-09 05:44 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,852 | 64.5% | -2.55% |
| 2026-06-09 04:44 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,854 | 65.8% | -2.13% |
| 2026-06-09 03:43 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,740 | 65.6% | -2.35% |
| 2026-06-09 02:43 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,550 | 65.9% | -1.39% |
| 2026-06-09 01:42 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,066 | 66.1% | -1.86% |
| 2026-06-09 00:42 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,435 | 66.3% | -2.75% |
| 2026-06-08 23:40 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,726 | 56.9% | -3.21% |
| 2026-06-08 22:39 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,468 | 57.0% | -2.74% |
| 2026-06-08 21:38 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,355 | 56.6% | -1.95% |
| 2026-06-08 20:38 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,452 | 55.8% | -2.20% |
| 2026-06-08 19:37 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,529 | 55.5% | -2.82% |
| 2026-06-08 18:25 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,497 | 56.1% | -2.93% |
| 2026-06-08 17:23 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,698 | 56.0% | -3.69% |
| 2026-06-08 16:22 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,957 | 55.9% | -4.48% |
| 2026-06-08 15:21 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,730 | 56.1% | -3.58% |
| 2026-06-08 14:20 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,781 | 55.7% | -2.44% |
| 2026-06-08 13:19 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,449 | 56.1% | -1.21% |
| 2026-06-08 12:15 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,119 | 56.1% | -0.55% |
| 2026-06-08 11:14 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,466 | 56.0% | -1.22% |
| 2026-06-08 10:14 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,101 | 55.6% | -0.44% |
| 2026-06-08 09:13 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,254 | 56.1% | -0.14% |
| 2026-06-08 08:12 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $62,968 | 56.1% | +0.48% |
| 2026-06-08 07:12 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,692 | 75.0% | +1.00% |
| 2026-06-08 06:04 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,669 | 75.0% | +0.86% |
| 2026-06-08 05:04 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,104 | 66.2% | -0.40% |
| 2026-06-08 04:03 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,112 | 65.8% | -0.41% |
| 2026-06-08 03:03 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,194 | 56.2% | -0.72% |
| 2026-06-08 02:02 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,625 | 66.0% | -1.69% |
| 2026-06-08 01:01 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,320 | 65.9% | -0.40% |
| 2026-06-08 00:01 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,842 | 75.0% | +0.94% |
| 2026-06-07 22:59 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,756 | 75.0% | +3.19% |
| 2026-06-07 21:58 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,857 | 75.0% | +2.60% |
| 2026-06-07 20:58 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,305 | 75.0% | +3.34% |
| 2026-06-07 19:58 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,007 | 75.0% | +2.33% |
| 2026-06-07 18:57 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,150 | 75.0% | +2.22% |
| 2026-06-07 17:56 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,065 | 75.0% | +2.31% |
| 2026-06-07 16:56 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,080 | 75.0% | +2.61% |
| 2026-06-07 15:56 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,898 | 75.0% | +3.33% |
| 2026-06-07 14:55 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,692 | 75.0% | +3.30% |
| 2026-06-07 13:55 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,902 | 75.0% | +3.04% |
| 2026-06-07 12:54 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,622 | 75.0% | +1.32% |
| 2026-06-07 11:54 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,374 | 75.0% | +1.19% |
| 2026-06-07 10:50 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,796 | 75.0% | +1.07% |
| 2026-06-07 09:50 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,360 | 75.0% | +1.19% |
| 2026-06-07 08:50 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,081 | 75.0% | +1.89% |
| 2026-06-07 07:49 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,733 | 75.0% | +2.00% |
| 2026-06-07 06:48 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,863 | 75.0% | +1.34% |
| 2026-06-07 05:48 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,684 | 75.0% | +1.60% |
| 2026-06-07 04:47 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,481 | 75.0% | +2.64% |
| 2026-06-07 03:47 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,458 | 75.0% | +2.69% |
| 2026-06-07 02:46 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,769 | 75.0% | +3.99% |
| 2026-06-07 01:46 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,858 | 75.0% | +4.55% |
| 2026-06-07 00:46 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,536 | 75.0% | +4.60% |
| 2026-06-06 23:45 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,738 | 75.0% | +3.46% |
| 2026-06-06 22:45 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,666 | 75.0% | +1.80% |
| 2026-06-06 21:45 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,585 | 75.0% | +2.10% |
| 2026-06-06 20:45 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,622 | 75.0% | +1.13% |
| 2026-06-06 19:44 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,563 | 75.0% | +2.38% |
| 2026-06-06 18:43 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,765 | 75.0% | +2.28% |
| 2026-06-06 17:43 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,765 | 75.0% | +2.14% |
| 2026-06-06 16:42 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,773 | 75.0% | +2.15% |
| 2026-06-06 15:42 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,773 | 75.0% | +1.85% |
| 2026-06-06 14:42 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,006 | 75.0% | +1.13% |
| 2026-06-06 13:42 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,785 | 75.0% | +1.84% |
| 2026-06-06 12:42 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,603 | 75.0% | +3.33% |
| 2026-06-06 11:41 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,963 | 75.0% | +2.31% |
| 2026-06-06 10:41 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,255 | 75.0% | +2.52% |
| 2026-06-06 09:41 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,977 | 75.0% | +2.27% |
| 2026-06-06 08:41 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,777 | 75.0% | +2.15% |
| 2026-06-06 07:40 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,941 | 75.0% | +1.30% |
| 2026-06-06 06:40 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,090 | 75.0% | +2.95% |
| 2026-06-06 05:40 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,668 | 75.0% | +1.67% |
| 2026-06-06 04:39 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,936 | 75.0% | +0.89% |
| 2026-06-06 03:39 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $61,050 | 65.0% | +0.67% |
| 2026-06-06 02:39 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,255 | 75.0% | -0.79% |
| 2026-06-06 01:39 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,050 | 75.0% | -0.31% |
| 2026-06-06 00:38 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,587 | 75.0% | -1.71% |
| 2026-06-05 23:38 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,665 | 75.0% | -1.50% |
| 2026-06-05 22:38 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,607 | 75.0% | -1.53% |
| 2026-06-05 21:37 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,280 | 75.0% | +0.51% |
| 2026-06-05 20:37 UTC | STAY OUT | $59,337 | 75.0% | +2.17% |
| 2026-06-05 19:36 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,772 | 75.0% | -0.34% |
| 2026-06-05 18:36 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,387 | 75.0% | -1.01% |
| 2026-06-05 17:35 UTC | STAY OUT | $60,414 | 75.0% | +0.58% |
| 2026-06-05 16:35 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,734 | 75.0% | -4.65% |
| 2026-06-05 15:34 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,734 | 75.0% | -4.64% |
| 2026-06-05 14:52 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,917 | 75.0% | -1.47% |
| 2026-06-05 13:52 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,933 | 75.0% | -1.85% |
| 2026-06-05 12:52 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,506 | 75.0% | -3.04% |
| 2026-06-05 11:52 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,825 | 75.0% | -2.96% |
| 2026-06-05 10:51 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,402 | 75.0% | -1.84% |
| 2026-06-05 09:51 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,997 | 75.0% | -3.21% |
| 2026-06-05 08:51 UTC | STAY OUT | $61,904 | 75.0% | -1.82% |
| 2026-06-05 07:51 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,281 | 75.0% | -2.15% |
| 2026-06-05 06:51 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,544 | 75.0% | -5.44% |
| 2026-06-05 05:51 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,643 | 75.0% | -3.15% |
| 2026-06-05 04:50 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,539 | 75.0% | -2.56% |
| 2026-06-05 03:50 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,308 | 75.0% | -3.57% |
| 2026-06-05 02:50 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,339 | 75.0% | -3.29% |
| 2026-06-05 01:50 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,826 | 75.0% | -4.35% |
| 2026-06-05 00:49 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,679 | 75.0% | -3.28% |
| 2026-06-04 23:49 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,236 | 75.0% | -2.49% |
| 2026-06-04 22:49 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,575 | 75.0% | -3.10% |
| 2026-06-04 21:49 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,575 | 75.0% | -5.18% |
| 2026-06-04 20:41 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,734 | 75.0% | -6.90% |
| 2026-06-04 19:41 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,448 | 75.0% | -4.22% |
| 2026-06-04 18:40 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,478 | 75.0% | -3.29% |
| 2026-06-04 17:40 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,825 | 75.0% | -5.34% |
| 2026-06-04 16:40 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,904 | 75.0% | -0.27% |
| 2026-06-04 15:39 UTC | STAY OUT | $64,127 | 75.0% | -0.61% |
| 2026-06-04 14:39 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,704 | 65.0% | -2.80% |
| 2026-06-04 13:39 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,470 | 75.0% | -0.86% |
| 2026-06-04 12:38 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,352 | 75.0% | +0.25% |
| 2026-06-04 11:37 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,124 | 75.0% | -0.47% |
| 2026-06-04 10:37 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,534 | 75.0% | -1.78% |
| 2026-06-04 09:37 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,555 | 75.0% | -0.88% |
| 2026-06-04 08:36 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,963 | 75.0% | -3.22% |
| 2026-06-04 07:36 UTC | STAY OUT | $63,908 | 75.0% | -2.55% |
| 2026-06-04 06:36 UTC | STAY OUT | $64,337 | 75.0% | -1.23% |
| 2026-06-04 05:36 UTC | STAY OUT | $64,287 | 75.0% | -2.56% |
| 2026-06-04 04:36 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $63,153 | 65.0% | -0.97% |
| 2026-06-04 03:36 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,098 | 75.0% | +1.95% |
| 2026-06-04 02:35 UTC | STAY OUT | $62,098 | 75.0% | +2.00% |
| 2026-06-04 01:05 UTC | STAY OUT | $64,046 | 75.0% | -0.34% |
| 2026-06-04 00:05 UTC | STAY OUT | $64,813 | 75.0% | -1.75% |
| 2026-06-03 23:04 UTC | STAY OUT | $65,670 | 75.0% | -3.71% |
| 2026-06-03 22:04 UTC | STAY OUT | $64,925 | 75.0% | -2.08% |
| 2026-06-03 21:04 UTC | STAY OUT | $65,360 | 75.0% | -2.73% |
| 2026-06-03 20:03 UTC | STAY OUT | $65,954 | 75.0% | -3.37% |
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