Every regime call, verified against actual BTC price movement. Updated hourly.
Accuracy when Vigil acts counts only calls where Vigil took a position (STAY OUT, CAUTIOUS, or BULLISH) — NEUTRAL is excluded. Each is scored two-sided: a risk-off call is correct if BTC was ≤ 0 over the horizon; a BULLISH call if BTC was > 0. Sample: 1269 actioned calls at 24h.
Base rate (24h): BTC was ≤ 0 in 53.8% of all hourly windows over this period. Edge over base rate: +4.4 pp. Vigil signals selectively — it only takes a risk-off position in volatility regimes where it has a measured edge, and returns NEUTRAL rather than guess in low-edge conditions. That selectivity is why "accuracy when acting" exceeds the unconditional base rate.
API clients get the machine-readable figures (incl. base_rate_24h, edge_24h_pp) at /v1/status.
Vigil detected danger at $82,044 and maintained CAUTIOUS for 1814 consecutive hours. Orange line = risk score (higher = more dangerous). Blue line = BTC price.
How to read this: Each row is one hourly regime call. "BTC 24h Later" shows what BTC did in the 24 hours after the call. When Vigil takes a position — CAUTIOUS/STAY OUT and BTC drops, or BULLISH and BTC rises — that's a correct call (green). NEUTRAL means Vigil is standing aside (no edge), so it isn't scored. "pending" means 24 hours haven't elapsed yet.
| Timestamp | Verdict | BTC Price | Prob Down | BTC 24h Later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 09:06 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,318 | 68.3% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 08:06 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,390 | 67.8% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 07:06 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,366 | 68.3% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 06:06 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,475 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 05:06 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,476 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 04:05 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,468 | 68.1% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 03:05 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,414 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 02:05 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,456 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 01:05 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,311 | 68.1% | pending |
| 2026-07-26 00:05 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,355 | 67.4% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 23:05 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,290 | 67.6% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 22:04 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,281 | 67.2% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 21:04 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,333 | 67.9% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 20:04 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,362 | 67.8% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 19:04 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,213 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 18:04 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,154 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 17:03 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,122 | 67.7% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 16:03 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,150 | 67.6% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 15:03 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,116 | 67.9% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 14:03 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,060 | 67.2% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 13:03 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,003 | 66.7% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 12:03 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,002 | 67.0% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 11:02 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,949 | 66.7% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 10:02 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,813 | 65.3% | pending |
| 2026-07-25 09:02 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,948 | 68.4% | +0.58% |
| 2026-07-25 08:02 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,948 | 67.2% | +0.69% |
| 2026-07-25 07:02 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,962 | 68.3% | +0.63% |
| 2026-07-25 06:01 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,123 | 68.0% | +0.55% |
| 2026-07-25 05:01 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,027 | 68.6% | +0.70% |
| 2026-07-25 04:01 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,992 | 68.4% | +0.74% |
| 2026-07-25 03:01 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,009 | 68.4% | +0.63% |
| 2026-07-25 02:01 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,016 | 67.1% | +0.69% |
| 2026-07-25 01:01 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,091 | 67.4% | +0.34% |
| 2026-07-25 00:00 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,108 | 67.0% | +0.38% |
| 2026-07-24 23:00 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,081 | 67.5% | +0.33% |
| 2026-07-24 22:00 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,107 | 66.0% | +0.27% |
| 2026-07-24 21:00 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,175 | 68.0% | +0.25% |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,214 | 68.2% | +0.23% |
| 2026-07-24 18:59 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,121 | 67.3% | +0.14% |
| 2026-07-24 17:59 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,895 | 68.3% | +0.41% |
| 2026-07-24 16:58 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,018 | 67.1% | +0.16% |
| 2026-07-24 15:58 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,990 | 67.4% | +0.25% |
| 2026-07-24 14:58 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,064 | 68.2% | +0.08% |
| 2026-07-24 13:57 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,724 | 67.8% | -1.03% |
| 2026-07-24 12:57 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,034 | 66.6% | -1.59% |
| 2026-07-24 11:57 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,910 | 67.9% | -1.40% |
| 2026-07-24 10:57 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,057 | 68.2% | -1.70% |
| 2026-07-24 09:56 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,260 | 68.4% | -2.22% |
| 2026-07-24 08:56 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,461 | 68.0% | -2.31% |
| 2026-07-24 07:56 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,413 | 67.6% | -2.24% |
| 2026-07-24 06:56 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,259 | 67.5% | -1.99% |
| 2026-07-24 05:56 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,257 | 66.8% | -1.74% |
| 2026-07-24 04:56 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,408 | 66.5% | -2.11% |
| 2026-07-24 03:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,063 | 67.7% | -1.65% |
| 2026-07-24 02:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,031 | 67.8% | -1.57% |
| 2026-07-24 01:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,932 | 68.1% | -1.41% |
| 2026-07-24 00:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,056 | 68.4% | -1.48% |
| 2026-07-23 23:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,148 | 68.6% | -1.60% |
| 2026-07-23 22:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,096 | 68.3% | -1.56% |
| 2026-07-23 21:54 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,808 | 68.7% | -1.08% |
| 2026-07-23 20:54 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,818 | 68.0% | -0.99% |
| 2026-07-23 19:54 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,629 | 67.7% | -0.64% |
| 2026-07-23 18:53 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,700 | 61.8% | -0.90% |
| 2026-07-23 17:53 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,912 | 67.1% | -1.57% |
| 2026-07-23 16:52 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,851 | 67.6% | -1.28% |
| 2026-07-23 15:52 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,857 | 68.0% | -1.34% |
| 2026-07-23 14:52 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,119 | 68.3% | -1.62% |
| 2026-07-23 13:51 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,535 | 67.6% | -1.24% |
| 2026-07-23 12:51 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,701 | 65.8% | -1.01% |
| 2026-07-23 11:51 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,599 | 68.2% | -1.05% |
| 2026-07-23 10:51 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,620 | 68.2% | -0.86% |
| 2026-07-23 09:50 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,401 | 67.8% | -0.22% |
| 2026-07-23 08:50 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,753 | 67.7% | -0.44% |
| 2026-07-23 07:50 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,651 | 67.3% | -0.36% |
| 2026-07-23 06:50 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,573 | 67.6% | -0.48% |
| 2026-07-23 05:50 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,628 | 67.9% | -0.57% |
| 2026-07-23 04:49 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,772 | 68.1% | -0.55% |
| 2026-07-23 03:49 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,797 | 68.1% | -1.12% |
| 2026-07-23 02:49 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,030 | 67.2% | -1.51% |
| 2026-07-23 01:49 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,091 | 67.8% | -1.75% |
| 2026-07-23 00:49 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,015 | 67.8% | -1.45% |
| 2026-07-22 23:49 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,030 | 68.0% | -1.34% |
| 2026-07-22 22:48 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,886 | 67.9% | -1.20% |
| 2026-07-22 21:48 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,907 | 67.6% | -1.67% |
| 2026-07-22 20:48 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,857 | 67.5% | -1.58% |
| 2026-07-22 19:48 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,003 | 67.1% | -2.08% |
| 2026-07-22 18:47 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,207 | 66.8% | -2.28% |
| 2026-07-22 17:47 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,017 | 67.6% | -1.67% |
| 2026-07-22 16:46 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,766 | 67.0% | -1.39% |
| 2026-07-22 15:46 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,920 | 67.1% | -1.61% |
| 2026-07-22 14:46 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,601 | 67.4% | -0.73% |
| 2026-07-22 13:45 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,977 | 67.5% | -0.67% |
| 2026-07-22 12:45 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,995 | 67.4% | -0.45% |
| 2026-07-22 11:45 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,880 | 67.1% | -0.43% |
| 2026-07-22 10:44 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,941 | 67.4% | -0.49% |
| 2026-07-22 09:44 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,803 | 67.0% | -0.61% |
| 2026-07-22 08:44 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,894 | 67.3% | -0.21% |
| 2026-07-22 07:44 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,944 | 66.6% | -0.44% |
| 2026-07-22 06:44 UTC | NEUTRAL | $65,944 | 66.6% | -0.56% |
| 2026-07-22 05:32 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,349 | 67.2% | -1.09% |
| 2026-07-22 04:31 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,174 | 67.3% | -0.61% |
| 2026-07-22 03:31 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,281 | 67.6% | -0.73% |
| 2026-07-22 02:31 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,395 | 67.6% | -0.55% |
| 2026-07-22 01:31 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,585 | 66.1% | -0.74% |
| 2026-07-22 00:31 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,517 | 67.4% | -0.75% |
| 2026-07-21 23:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,273 | 67.6% | -0.37% |
| 2026-07-21 22:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,342 | 67.8% | -0.69% |
| 2026-07-21 21:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,379 | 67.9% | -0.71% |
| 2026-07-21 20:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,419 | 67.6% | -0.85% |
| 2026-07-21 19:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,287 | 67.6% | -0.43% |
| 2026-07-21 18:29 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,177 | 67.5% | +0.04% |
| 2026-07-21 17:29 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,514 | 67.3% | -0.75% |
| 2026-07-21 16:28 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,678 | 67.3% | -1.37% |
| 2026-07-21 15:28 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,822 | 67.4% | -1.35% |
| 2026-07-21 14:27 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,737 | 67.5% | -1.70% |
| 2026-07-21 13:27 UTC | NEUTRAL | $66,517 | 67.2% | -0.81% |
| 2026-07-21 12:27 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $66,312 | 66.4% | -0.48% |
| 2026-07-21 11:27 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $66,162 | 66.9% | -0.43% |
| 2026-07-21 10:27 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $66,251 | 66.5% | -0.47% |
| 2026-07-21 09:26 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $66,180 | 66.8% | -0.57% |
| 2026-07-21 08:26 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $66,161 | 66.4% | -0.40% |
| 2026-07-21 07:26 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,891 | 66.6% | +0.08% |
| 2026-07-21 06:26 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,707 | 66.8% | +0.36% |
| 2026-07-21 05:26 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,489 | 66.6% | +1.31% |
| 2026-07-21 04:26 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,542 | 66.7% | +0.96% |
| 2026-07-21 03:25 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,374 | 66.3% | +1.39% |
| 2026-07-21 02:25 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,196 | 66.7% | +1.84% |
| 2026-07-21 01:25 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,528 | 66.8% | +1.61% |
| 2026-07-21 00:25 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,215 | 66.8% | +2.00% |
| 2026-07-20 23:25 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,110 | 66.8% | +1.79% |
| 2026-07-20 22:24 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,250 | 66.8% | +1.67% |
| 2026-07-20 21:24 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,327 | 66.6% | +1.61% |
| 2026-07-20 20:24 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,095 | 66.8% | +2.03% |
| 2026-07-20 19:24 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,214 | 66.8% | +1.65% |
| 2026-07-20 18:23 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,542 | 66.7% | +0.97% |
| 2026-07-20 17:23 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,455 | 66.8% | +1.62% |
| 2026-07-20 16:22 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $65,558 | 66.9% | +1.71% |
| 2026-07-20 15:21 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,345 | 68.6% | +3.85% |
| 2026-07-20 14:21 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,248 | 68.6% | +3.88% |
| 2026-07-20 13:21 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,579 | 68.5% | +3.00% |
| 2026-07-20 12:20 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,942 | 67.5% | +2.11% |
| 2026-07-20 11:20 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,239 | 67.2% | +2.99% |
| 2026-07-20 10:20 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,149 | 68.0% | +3.28% |
| 2026-07-20 09:20 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,979 | 68.5% | +3.44% |
| 2026-07-20 08:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,194 | 68.1% | +3.06% |
| 2026-07-20 07:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $63,869 | 68.7% | +3.17% |
| 2026-07-20 06:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,102 | 67.7% | +2.50% |
| 2026-07-20 05:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,493 | 68.6% | +1.54% |
| 2026-07-20 04:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,782 | 68.1% | +1.17% |
| 2026-07-20 03:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,784 | 67.7% | +0.91% |
| 2026-07-20 02:18 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,598 | 68.1% | +0.93% |
| 2026-07-20 01:18 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,513 | 68.2% | +1.57% |
| 2026-07-20 00:18 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,685 | 67.9% | +0.82% |
| 2026-07-19 23:18 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,631 | 68.4% | +0.74% |
| 2026-07-19 22:18 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,380 | 68.5% | +1.35% |
| 2026-07-19 21:18 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,486 | 68.4% | +1.30% |
| 2026-07-19 20:17 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,423 | 67.6% | +1.04% |
| 2026-07-19 19:17 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,370 | 68.4% | +1.31% |
| 2026-07-19 18:17 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,511 | 68.0% | +1.60% |
| 2026-07-19 17:17 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,496 | 67.6% | +1.49% |
| 2026-07-19 16:17 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,534 | 66.9% | +1.59% |
| 2026-07-19 15:16 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,544 | 67.8% | -0.31% |
| 2026-07-19 14:16 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,436 | 67.1% | -0.29% |
| 2026-07-19 13:16 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,403 | 67.5% | +0.27% |
| 2026-07-19 12:16 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,438 | 67.7% | +0.78% |
| 2026-07-19 11:15 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,550 | 67.8% | -0.48% |
| 2026-07-19 10:15 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,475 | 67.5% | -0.51% |
| 2026-07-19 09:15 UTC | NEUTRAL | $64,672 | 67.2% | -1.07% |
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