Every regime call, verified against actual BTC price movement. Updated hourly.
Accuracy when Vigil acts counts only calls where Vigil took a position (STAY OUT, CAUTIOUS, or BULLISH) — NEUTRAL is excluded. Each is scored two-sided: a risk-off call is correct if BTC was ≤ 0 over the horizon; a BULLISH call if BTC was > 0. Sample: 1340 actioned calls at 24h.
Base rate (24h): BTC was ≤ 0 in 49.9% of all hourly windows over this period. Edge over base rate: +7.5 pp. Vigil signals selectively — it only takes a risk-off position in volatility regimes where it has a measured edge, and returns NEUTRAL rather than guess in low-edge conditions. That selectivity is why "accuracy when acting" exceeds the unconditional base rate.
API clients get the machine-readable figures (incl. base_rate_24h, edge_24h_pp) at /v1/status.
Vigil detected danger at $82,044 and maintained CAUTIOUS for 2902 consecutive hours. Orange line = risk score (higher = more dangerous). Blue line = BTC price.
How to read this: Each row is one hourly regime call. "BTC 24h Later" shows what BTC did in the 24 hours after the call. When Vigil takes a position — CAUTIOUS/STAY OUT and BTC drops, or BULLISH and BTC rises — that's a correct call (green). NEUTRAL means Vigil is standing aside (no edge), so it isn't scored. "pending" means 24 hours haven't elapsed yet.
| Timestamp | Verdict | BTC Price | Prob Down | BTC 24h Later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 12:32 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,832 | 66.6% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 11:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,850 | 68.3% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 10:29 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,983 | 68.5% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 09:27 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,097 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 08:26 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,102 | 68.4% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 07:26 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,398 | 68.1% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 06:25 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,496 | 68.2% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 05:24 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,378 | 67.6% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 04:24 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,320 | 67.2% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 03:23 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,336 | 67.6% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 02:22 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,076 | 63.3% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 01:22 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,166 | 67.4% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 00:21 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,299 | 67.7% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 23:20 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,909 | 66.3% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 22:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,144 | 67.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 21:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,323 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 20:18 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,230 | 68.5% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 19:15 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,404 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 18:12 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,759 | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 17:10 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,790 | 67.8% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 16:06 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,583 | 68.3% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 15:03 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,123 | 68.1% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 13:59 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,583 | 67.8% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 12:57 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,308 | 68.1% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 11:56 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,900 | 68.3% | -1.35% |
| 2026-09-09 10:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,970 | 68.2% | -1.42% |
| 2026-09-09 09:53 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,693 | 68.1% | -2.15% |
| 2026-09-09 08:52 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,268 | 68.5% | -1.48% |
| 2026-09-09 07:51 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,149 | 67.8% | -1.32% |
| 2026-09-09 06:50 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,926 | 68.2% | -0.67% |
| 2026-09-09 05:49 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,158 | 68.5% | -0.84% |
| 2026-09-09 04:48 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,638 | 68.7% | -0.33% |
| 2026-09-09 03:47 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,735 | 68.8% | -0.53% |
| 2026-09-09 02:47 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,893 | 68.2% | -0.71% |
| 2026-09-09 01:46 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,774 | 68.0% | -0.89% |
| 2026-09-09 00:45 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,452 | 68.7% | -0.37% |
| 2026-09-08 23:45 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,552 | 69.0% | -0.32% |
| 2026-09-08 22:44 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,480 | 68.6% | -0.73% |
| 2026-09-08 21:43 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,484 | 67.9% | -0.43% |
| 2026-09-08 20:42 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,442 | 68.4% | -0.15% |
| 2026-09-08 19:40 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,430 | 68.8% | -0.25% |
| 2026-09-08 18:38 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,498 | 68.2% | -0.12% |
| 2026-09-08 17:36 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,731 | 68.7% | +0.04% |
| 2026-09-08 16:33 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,897 | 68.0% | -0.14% |
| 2026-09-08 15:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,564 | 67.3% | +0.02% |
| 2026-09-08 14:28 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,923 | 64.1% | +1.54% |
| 2026-09-08 13:26 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,409 | 68.8% | +1.50% |
| 2026-09-08 12:24 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,406 | 68.3% | +1.15% |
| 2026-09-08 11:23 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,553 | 66.6% | +0.44% |
| 2026-09-08 10:22 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,747 | 67.7% | +0.28% |
| 2026-09-08 09:20 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,389 | 66.2% | +1.66% |
| 2026-09-08 08:19 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,458 | 65.8% | +1.03% |
| 2026-09-08 07:17 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,306 | 65.6% | +1.08% |
| 2026-09-08 06:16 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,565 | 66.3% | +0.46% |
| 2026-09-08 05:14 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,666 | 66.5% | +0.63% |
| 2026-09-08 04:13 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,890 | 64.5% | -0.32% |
| 2026-09-08 03:12 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,922 | 65.2% | -0.24% |
| 2026-09-08 02:10 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,421 | 68.2% | -0.66% |
| 2026-09-08 01:09 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,288 | 66.6% | -0.65% |
| 2026-09-08 00:08 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,101 | 66.6% | -0.82% |
| 2026-09-07 23:06 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,939 | 66.7% | -0.49% |
| 2026-09-07 22:05 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,154 | 66.8% | -0.85% |
| 2026-09-07 21:03 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,227 | 66.6% | -0.94% |
| 2026-09-07 20:02 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,191 | 66.6% | -0.94% |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,179 | 66.0% | -0.95% |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,018 | 65.4% | -0.66% |
| 2026-09-07 16:59 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,803 | 65.4% | -0.09% |
| 2026-09-07 15:58 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,193 | 64.1% | -0.37% |
| 2026-09-07 14:58 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,344 | 66.3% | -0.98% |
| 2026-09-07 13:57 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,602 | 62.5% | -2.11% |
| 2026-09-07 12:56 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,410 | 67.9% | -1.26% |
| 2026-09-07 11:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,360 | 68.5% | -1.20% |
| 2026-09-07 10:55 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,294 | 68.7% | -0.93% |
| 2026-09-07 09:54 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,426 | 68.6% | -0.85% |
| 2026-09-07 08:53 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,392 | 68.6% | -1.26% |
| 2026-09-07 07:52 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,665 | 68.7% | -1.51% |
| 2026-09-07 06:52 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,764 | 68.4% | -1.83% |
| 2026-09-07 05:51 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,718 | 68.6% | -1.45% |
| 2026-09-07 04:50 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,590 | 68.8% | -1.16% |
| 2026-09-07 03:50 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,869 | 67.7% | -1.23% |
| 2026-09-07 02:49 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,923 | 68.7% | -1.25% |
| 2026-09-07 01:48 UTC | NEUTRAL | $80,122 | 68.6% | -0.88% |
| 2026-09-07 00:47 UTC | NEUTRAL | $80,359 | 68.4% | -1.33% |
| 2026-09-06 23:46 UTC | NEUTRAL | $80,049 | 68.5% | -1.18% |
| 2026-09-06 22:46 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,950 | 68.3% | -1.26% |
| 2026-09-06 21:45 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,912 | 68.4% | -0.95% |
| 2026-09-06 20:44 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,838 | 67.4% | -0.76% |
| 2026-09-06 19:44 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,952 | 67.7% | -0.95% |
| 2026-09-06 18:43 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,747 | 67.6% | -0.71% |
| 2026-09-06 17:43 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,688 | 68.9% | -0.84% |
| 2026-09-06 16:42 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,722 | 68.9% | -1.15% |
| 2026-09-06 15:41 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,547 | 69.2% | -0.44% |
| 2026-09-06 14:41 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,833 | 69.0% | -0.61% |
| 2026-09-06 13:40 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,930 | 68.9% | -0.41% |
| 2026-09-06 12:39 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,933 | 67.0% | -0.65% |
| 2026-09-06 11:39 UTC | NEUTRAL | $80,023 | 67.1% | -0.83% |
| 2026-09-06 10:38 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,889 | 67.0% | -0.74% |
| 2026-09-06 09:38 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,858 | 65.3% | -0.54% |
| 2026-09-06 08:37 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,830 | 67.4% | -0.55% |
| 2026-09-06 07:36 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,774 | 67.4% | -0.14% |
| 2026-09-06 06:36 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,992 | 67.4% | -0.29% |
| 2026-09-06 05:35 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,872 | 67.8% | -0.19% |
| 2026-09-06 04:34 UTC | NEUTRAL | $80,039 | 67.8% | -0.56% |
| 2026-09-06 03:34 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,918 | 67.9% | -0.06% |
| 2026-09-06 02:33 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,961 | 67.8% | -0.05% |
| 2026-09-06 01:32 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,883 | 67.5% | +0.30% |
| 2026-09-06 00:32 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,846 | 67.0% | +0.64% |
| 2026-09-05 23:31 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,800 | 67.2% | +0.31% |
| 2026-09-05 22:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,748 | 66.1% | +0.25% |
| 2026-09-05 21:30 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,759 | 67.7% | +0.19% |
| 2026-09-05 20:29 UTC | NEUTRAL | $80,007 | 67.5% | -0.21% |
| 2026-09-05 19:28 UTC | NEUTRAL | $80,068 | 67.5% | -0.15% |
| 2026-09-05 18:28 UTC | NEUTRAL | $80,051 | 67.6% | -0.38% |
| 2026-09-05 17:27 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,815 | 67.5% | -0.16% |
| 2026-09-05 16:26 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,742 | 67.4% | -0.02% |
| 2026-09-05 15:26 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,629 | 64.8% | -0.10% |
| 2026-09-05 14:25 UTC | NEUTRAL | $79,714 | 67.3% | +0.15% |
| 2026-09-05 13:25 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,624 | 56.5% | +0.38% |
| 2026-09-05 12:24 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,629 | 56.6% | +0.38% |
| 2026-09-05 11:23 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,639 | 56.6% | +0.48% |
| 2026-09-05 10:23 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,651 | 56.9% | +0.30% |
| 2026-09-05 09:22 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,721 | 56.9% | +0.17% |
| 2026-09-05 08:22 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,664 | 66.7% | +0.21% |
| 2026-09-05 07:21 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,594 | 56.9% | +0.23% |
| 2026-09-05 06:20 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,511 | 66.0% | +0.61% |
| 2026-09-05 05:20 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,599 | 66.3% | +0.34% |
| 2026-09-05 04:19 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,587 | 65.3% | +0.57% |
| 2026-09-05 03:19 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,550 | 56.0% | +0.46% |
| 2026-09-05 02:18 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,575 | 55.9% | +0.49% |
| 2026-09-05 01:17 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,682 | 56.2% | +0.25% |
| 2026-09-05 00:17 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,643 | 56.0% | +0.26% |
| 2026-09-04 23:16 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,669 | 56.1% | +0.16% |
| 2026-09-04 22:15 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,719 | 56.1% | +0.04% |
| 2026-09-04 21:15 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,814 | 56.2% | -0.07% |
| 2026-09-04 20:14 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,623 | 56.2% | +0.48% |
| 2026-09-04 19:12 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,477 | 56.1% | +0.74% |
| 2026-09-04 18:09 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,756 | 55.9% | +0.37% |
| 2026-09-04 17:07 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,429 | 55.9% | +0.48% |
| 2026-09-04 16:04 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $78,908 | 56.2% | +1.06% |
| 2026-09-04 15:01 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,386 | 66.4% | +0.31% |
| 2026-09-04 13:58 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $79,460 | 66.2% | +0.32% |
| 2026-09-04 12:57 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,231 | 66.2% | -1.98% |
| 2026-09-04 11:56 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,191 | 66.3% | -1.92% |
| 2026-09-04 10:55 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,051 | 65.9% | -1.74% |
| 2026-09-04 09:55 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,134 | 66.0% | -1.83% |
| 2026-09-04 08:54 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $80,648 | 64.3% | -1.15% |
| 2026-09-04 07:53 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $80,785 | 65.6% | -1.39% |
| 2026-09-04 06:52 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,017 | 65.6% | -1.76% |
| 2026-09-04 05:52 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,069 | 66.6% | -1.92% |
| 2026-09-04 04:51 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $80,865 | 66.5% | -1.57% |
| 2026-09-04 03:51 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $80,831 | 66.2% | -1.54% |
| 2026-09-04 02:50 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $80,994 | 66.3% | -1.78% |
| 2026-09-04 01:49 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,279 | 66.0% | -2.10% |
| 2026-09-04 00:49 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,154 | 66.1% | -1.81% |
| 2026-09-03 23:48 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,602 | 65.7% | -2.40% |
| 2026-09-03 22:47 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,492 | 65.4% | -2.24% |
| 2026-09-03 21:47 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,757 | 65.5% | -2.49% |
| 2026-09-03 20:46 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,265 | 65.4% | -1.79% |
| 2026-09-03 19:43 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,058 | 65.8% | -1.77% |
| 2026-09-03 18:41 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $80,975 | 65.7% | -1.85% |
| 2026-09-03 17:37 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $81,369 | 65.7% | -1.98% |
| 2026-09-03 16:34 UTC | CAUTIOUS | $80,569 | 65.7% | -1.41% |
| 2026-09-03 15:31 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,826 | 67.8% | +0.10% |
| 2026-09-03 14:28 UTC | NEUTRAL | $78,622 | 67.8% | +0.97% |
| 2026-09-03 13:28 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,920 | 68.1% | +1.98% |
| 2026-09-03 12:27 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,707 | 67.7% | +4.53% |
| 2026-09-03 11:26 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,581 | 68.4% | +4.65% |
| 2026-09-03 10:26 UTC | NEUTRAL | $77,815 | 67.0% | +4.16% |
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